Demographics Blog

A guide to the five stages and how each country is placed today, using the same rule as the country pages.

High births and high deaths together — and why no country is in Stage 1 today.

High births with falling deaths and fast growth — the countries in Stage 2.

Falling births and slowing growth — the countries in Stage 3.

Low births and deaths, below replacement — the countries in Stage 4.

When deaths outnumber births — the countries in Stage 5.

How the four-stage and five-stage models differ, and what the fifth stage adds.

Expansive, stationary and constrictive shapes — and how each maps across the stages.

All 50 states ranked by median age, youngest first — Utah leads at 32.6. US Census Bureau Vintage 2025.

All 50 states ranked by median age, oldest first — Maine leads at 44.9. US Census Bureau Vintage 2025.