Population Pyramid Stages: The 5 Stages of the Demographic Transition
Updated October 6, 2026
The demographic transition is the shift countries make as birth and death rates fall from high to low. Demographers break that shift into stages, and group countries by where their current birth and death rates place them.
The demographic transition has five stages: high birth and death rates (Stage 1), falling deaths with fast growth (Stage 2), falling births (Stage 3), low birth and death rates (Stage 4), and natural decrease where deaths outnumber births (Stage 5). By 2026 UN data, no country is in Stage 1; 26 are in Stage 2, 64 in Stage 3, 63 in Stage 4 and 41 in Stage 5.
The five stages at a glance
Each stage is defined by what births and deaths are doing, and by the pyramid shape that follows. The table is the model itself; the counts beneath it show how many countries sit in each stage by 2026 UN projections.
| Stage | What it means | Births | Deaths | Growth | Typical pyramid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 high stationary | high birth and death rates | high | high | low | a broad base that shrinks fast with age — kept short because high death rates leave few older people |
| Stage 2 early expanding | high birth rate, falling death rate | high | falling | high | a very broad base tapering steeply — the classic wide triangle |
| Stage 3 late expanding | falling birth rate | falling | low | slowing | a narrower base with straighter sides |
| Stage 4 low stationary | low birth and death rates | low | low | low | roughly columnar — similar widths from the base to middle age |
| Stage 5 declining | natural decrease (deaths exceed births) | low | above births | negative (natural decrease) | a narrow base, widest through the middle and older-middle ages, with many older people |
A country in each stage today
No country is in Stage 1 today, so there is no modern example to show for it: among the 26 countries with at least 30 births per 1,000, the highest death rate is 11.5 per 1,000 (Nigeria), nowhere near the high mortality Stage 1 describes (see the Stage 1 page). For the other four stages, here is one clear example each, with the same figures shown on its country page.
- Population
- 28,814,879
- Births /1,000
- 40.2
- Deaths /1,000
- 8.4
- Natural change /1,000
- +31.8
- Children per woman
- 5.64
- Median age
- 15.7
- Under 15
- 45.8%
- 65 and older
- 2.6%
- Population
- 58,636,412
- Births /1,000
- 26.6
- Deaths /1,000
- 7.1
- Natural change /1,000
- +19.5
- Children per woman
- 3.07
- Median age
- 20.3
- Under 15
- 35.7%
- 65 and older
- 3.1%
- Population
- 213,562,666
- Births /1,000
- 11.7
- Deaths /1,000
- 7.3
- Natural change /1,000
- +4.4
- Children per woman
- 1.59
- Median age
- 35.3
- Under 15
- 19.1%
- 65 and older
- 11.9%
- Population
- 122,427,731
- Births /1,000
- 6.1
- Deaths /1,000
- 12.8
- Natural change /1,000
- −6.7
- Children per woman
- 1.23
- Median age
- 50.2
- Under 15
- 11.0%
- 65 and older
- 30.2%
Where the world sits in 2026
Counting people rather than countries changes the picture. Stage 4 and Stage 5 together hold about 72% of the world’s people — 45.2% in Stage 4 and 26.9% in Stage 5 — while the fast-growing Stage 2 countries are 14.1% and Stage 3 is 13.3%. 72.1% of the world’s people live in countries where women have fewer than 2.1 children on average, while 26 of 194 countries (13.4%) are still in Stage 2.
How we place each country
We place each country by its 2026 UN projections: Stage 5 if deaths exceed births; otherwise Stage 4 if women have fewer than 2.1 children on average; otherwise Stage 2 if there are at least 30 births per 1,000 people; otherwise Stage 3. No country meets the conditions of Stage 1 today.
This is the same rule used on every country page on this site, applied to 2026 UN figures, so a country’s stage here always matches its own page. It is a snapshot of current rates, not a judgement about a country’s future path.
Where the model came from
The model was built up over decades. Warren Thompson grouped countries by their birth and death trends in 1929; Frank Notestein set out the theory of the transition in 1945; and C. P. Blacker described a five-stage sequence in 1947. The fifth stage — natural decrease — is the one that now applies to 41 countries. The full citations are in the sources below.
Explore each stage
Frequently asked questions
What are the five stages of the demographic transition?
The transition runs through five stages — Stage 1, high stationary: high births and deaths; Stage 2, early expanding: falling deaths with high births; Stage 3, late expanding: falling births; Stage 4, low stationary: low births and deaths; and Stage 5, declining: deaths exceed births.
How many countries are in each stage in 2026?
By 2026 UN projections, Stage 2 has 26 countries, Stage 3 has 64, Stage 4 has 63 and Stage 5 has 41 — 194 countries; Vatican City is not classified. No country is in Stage 1.
Is any country still in Stage 1?
No. Stage 1 means high birth and high death rates together. Among the 26 countries with at least 30 births per 1,000 people today, the highest death rate is 11.5 per 1,000 (Nigeria) — far below the high mortality Stage 1 describes, so no country qualifies.
What stage is the United States in?
The United States is in Stage 4 (low birth and death rates): 10.5 births and 9.0 deaths per 1,000 people in 2026, with 1.63 children per woman — below the replacement level of 2.1.
What stage is Nigeria in?
Nigeria is in Stage 2 (high birth rate, falling death rate): 31.8 births and 11.5 deaths per 1,000 people in 2026, a natural increase of +20.3 per 1,000 and 4.21 children per woman.
Who created the demographic transition model?
The model was built up over decades. Warren Thompson grouped countries by their birth and death trends in 1929, Frank Notestein set out the theory of the transition in 1945, and C. P. Blacker described a five-stage sequence in 1947.
Sources
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024), World Population Prospects 2024, https://population.un.org/wpp/.
- Thompson, W. S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology 34(6): 959–975. https://doi.org/10.1086/214874.
- Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population—The Long View. In T. W. Schultz (ed.), Food for the World, pp. 36–57. University of Chicago Press.
- Blacker, C. P. (1947). Stages in Population Growth. The Eugenics Review 39(3): 88–101. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2986440/.