Stage 1 Population Pyramid: The High Stationary Stage
By Marko Visic · Updated
Stage 1 is the balance of high births and high deaths that held for most of human history, the starting point of the demographic transition. It is also the one stage with no modern example.
In Stage 1, high stationary, birth and death rates are both very high and nearly cancel out, so the population barely grows. By the UN’s 2026 projections, no country is in Stage 1: every country with a high birth rate has a death rate well below the level Stage 1 describes.
What Stage 1 means in the model
The demographic transition model describes how a country moves from high birth and death rates to low ones. Stage 1 is the pre-transition baseline. The table below places Stage 1 against the other four stages.
| Stage | What it means | Births | Deaths | Growth | Typical pyramid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 high stationary | high birth and death rates | high | high | low | a broad base that shrinks fast with age, kept short because high death rates leave few older people |
| Stage 2 early expanding | high birth rate, falling death rate | high | falling | high | a very broad base tapering steeply into the classic wide triangle |
| Stage 3 late expanding | falling birth rate | falling | low | slowing | a narrower base with straighter sides |
| Stage 4 low stationary | low birth and death rates | low | low | low | roughly columnar, with similar widths from the base to middle age |
| Stage 5 declining | natural decrease (deaths exceed births) | low | above births | negative (natural decrease) | a narrow base, widest through the middle and older-middle ages, with many older people |
The pyramid shape for Stage 1 is a broad base that shrinks fast with age, kept short because high death rates leave few older people.
Why no country is in Stage 1 today
Stage 1 needs high births and high deaths at the same time. Across the world, death rates fell long before birth rates did, so that combination no longer exists. Among the 26 countries with at least 30 births per 1,000 people in the 2026 UN projection, the highest death rate is 11.5 per 1,000 (Nigeria), a fraction of the mortality that defined Stage 1. These countries have already moved into Stage 2.
We place each country by its 2026 UN projections: Stage 5 if deaths exceed births; otherwise Stage 4 if women have fewer than 2.1 children on average; otherwise Stage 2 if there are at least 30 births per 1,000 people; otherwise Stage 3. No country meets the conditions of Stage 1 today.
The closest profile in Stage 1 terms
Central African Republic has the highest birth rate of any country (44.7 per 1,000), which is the one Stage 1 feature it shares. But its death rate has already fallen to 9.1 per 1,000, leaving a natural increase of +35.6 per 1,000: a clear Stage 2 profile, not Stage 1.
- Population
- 5,698,984
- Births /1,000
- 44.7
- Deaths /1,000
- 9.1
- Natural change /1,000
- +35.6
- Children per woman
- 5.69
- Median age
- 14.6
- Under 15
- 48.2%
- 65 and older
- 2.2%
Where Stage 1 sits in the model
Stage 1 is followed by Stage 2, early expanding, when death rates fall and growth takes off. For the whole sequence, see the five stages of the demographic transition.
Frequently asked questions
What is a high stationary population pyramid?
It is the Stage 1 shape: high birth and death rates. The base is wide because births are high, but it narrows fast with age because deaths are high too, so few people reach old age. Births and deaths roughly cancel out, so the population barely grows.
Is any country in Stage 1 today?
No. By 2026 UN projections no country has the high death rate Stage 1 needs. Among the 26 countries with at least 30 births per 1,000 people, the highest death rate is only 11.5 per 1,000 (Nigeria).
Is Niger in Stage 1?
No. Niger is in Stage 2: 40.2 births but only 8.4 deaths per 1,000 in 2026, a natural increase of +31.8 per 1,000. Its births are high, but its deaths have already fallen far below them, which is Stage 2, not Stage 1.
What comes after Stage 1?
Stage 2, early expanding: death rates fall while birth rates stay high, so the population grows quickly. Every country today has already made that step.
Sources
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024), World Population Prospects 2024, https://population.un.org/wpp/.