Stage 2 Population Pyramid: The Early Expanding Stage
By Marko Visic · Updated
In Stage 2, population growth accelerates. Death rates fall while birth rates stay high, and the gap between them drives the fastest growth any country sees.
In Stage 2, early expanding, death rates have dropped but birth rates remain high, so a country grows quickly. By the UN’s 2026 projections, 26 countries are in Stage 2, about 14.1% of the world’s people. 24 of the 26 are in Africa.
What defines a Stage 2 country
A Stage 2 country has high births and falling deaths, giving high growth. On a population pyramid that shows up as a very broad base tapering steeply into the classic wide triangle. The large share of children sets up decades of built-in growth even as fertility starts to ease.
Every Stage 2 country in 2026
These 26 countries meet the Stage 2 conditions in 2026, sorted by population. Each country’s figures match its own page.
| Country | Population (2026) | Births /1,000 | Deaths /1,000 | Natural change /1,000 | Children per woman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 242,431,831 | 31.8 | 11.5 | +20.3 | 4.21 |
| Ethiopia | 138,902,184 | 30.3 | 5.7 | +24.6 | 3.72 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 116,452,162 | 39.8 | 8.2 | +31.6 | 5.80 |
| Tanzania | 72,563,781 | 33.9 | 5.6 | +28.3 | 4.41 |
| Sudan | 53,282,719 | 31.8 | 6.2 | +25.6 | 4.13 |
| Uganda | 52,761,469 | 33.1 | 4.7 | +28.4 | 3.97 |
| Afghanistan | 45,047,069 | 33.8 | 5.5 | +28.3 | 4.56 |
| Yemen | 42,961,653 | 32.7 | 4.6 | +28.1 | 4.33 |
| Angola | 40,215,179 | 36.3 | 6.7 | +29.6 | 4.89 |
| Mozambique | 36,639,850 | 36.1 | 6.7 | +29.4 | 4.54 |
| Madagascar | 33,522,051 | 30.8 | 7.4 | +23.4 | 3.78 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 33,494,345 | 30.7 | 7.5 | +23.2 | 4.10 |
| Cameroon | 30,640,816 | 32.4 | 6.8 | +25.6 | 4.12 |
| Niger | 28,814,879 | 40.2 | 8.4 | +31.8 | 5.64 |
| Mali | 25,932,275 | 38.8 | 8.2 | +30.6 | 5.33 |
| Burkina Faso | 24,601,699 | 30.4 | 7.8 | +22.6 | 3.92 |
| Malawi | 22,785,535 | 30.4 | 5.2 | +25.2 | 3.45 |
| Zambia | 22,521,915 | 32.0 | 5.1 | +26.9 | 3.91 |
| Chad | 21,560,381 | 42.2 | 10.9 | +31.3 | 5.84 |
| Somalia | 20,305,906 | 41.2 | 9.6 | +31.6 | 5.81 |
| Guinea | 15,441,993 | 32.2 | 8.8 | +23.4 | 3.96 |
| Benin | 15,170,420 | 32.6 | 8.6 | +24.0 | 4.34 |
| Burundi | 14,729,157 | 32.0 | 6.6 | +25.4 | 4.57 |
| Togo | 9,930,918 | 30.1 | 7.6 | +22.5 | 4.01 |
| Central African Republic | 5,698,984 | 44.7 | 9.1 | +35.6 | 5.69 |
| Mauritania | 5,461,319 | 33.2 | 5.2 | +28.0 | 4.49 |
Population is a UN projection for 1 July 2026 (World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant).
A clear Stage 2 example
- Population
- 28,814,879
- Births /1,000
- 40.2
- Deaths /1,000
- 8.4
- Natural change /1,000
- +31.8
- Children per woman
- 5.64
- Median age
- 15.7
- Under 15
- 45.8%
- 65 and older
- 2.6%
We place each country by its 2026 UN projections: Stage 5 if deaths exceed births; otherwise Stage 4 if women have fewer than 2.1 children on average; otherwise Stage 2 if there are at least 30 births per 1,000 people; otherwise Stage 3. No country meets the conditions of Stage 1 today.
What comes before and after Stage 2
Stage 2 follows Stage 1, high stationary, and leads into Stage 3, late expanding, once birth rates begin to fall. See all five stages for the full picture.
Frequently asked questions
Which countries are in Stage 2?
By 2026 UN projections, 26 countries are in Stage 2, about 14.1% of the world's people, 24 of them in Africa. They are the countries with at least 30 births per 1,000 and deaths already well below that.
Is Nigeria in Stage 2?
Yes. Nigeria has 31.8 births and 11.5 deaths per 1,000 in 2026, a natural increase of +20.3 per 1,000 and 4.21 children per woman: high births with much lower deaths, the Stage 2 pattern.
Is Kenya in Stage 2?
No. Kenya is in Stage 3: its birth rate has fallen to 26.6 per 1,000 in 2026, below the 30 that marks Stage 2, though fertility (3.07) is still above replacement.
What does a Stage 2 population pyramid look like?
A very broad base tapering steeply into a wide triangle, lots of children. Niger is a clear example, with 40.2 births and 8.4 deaths per 1,000 and 5.64 children per woman.
Sources
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024), World Population Prospects 2024, https://population.un.org/wpp/.