4 vs 5 Stages of the Demographic Transition Model
By Marko Visic · Updated
The demographic transition is sometimes drawn with four stages and sometimes with five. Both models describe the same path; they differ only in what to call the very end.
Both models describe the same path and share the first four stages. The five-stage model adds a fifth stage for countries where deaths now outnumber births, while the four-stage model folds those into its final low-birth, low-death stage. By 2026 UN data, 41 countries have crossed into that decline.
Where the two models differ
Stages 1 to 3 are identical in both models: high births and deaths, then falling deaths with fast growth, then falling births. The split comes after fertility drops below replacement. The four-stage model calls that end state Stage 4 (low births, low deaths, roughly stable) and stops there. The five-stage model keeps Stage 4 for countries that are still growing slowly, and adds Stage 5 for those that have tipped into natural decline.
What the fifth stage separates out
The split changes the count. Applying this site’s stage rule to 2026 UN figures, 63 countries are in Stage 4 and 41 are in Stage 5. A four-stage model would place all 104 of them (about 72.1% of the world’s people) in a single final stage, hiding the divide between countries that still grow and countries that are shrinking.
We place each country by its 2026 UN projections: Stage 5 if deaths exceed births; otherwise Stage 4 if women have fewer than 2.1 children on average; otherwise Stage 2 if there are at least 30 births per 1,000 people; otherwise Stage 3. No country meets the conditions of Stage 1 today.
Where the fifth stage came from
The idea of a transition from high to low vital rates was set out by Warren Thompson in 1929 and developed into a theory by Frank Notestein in 1945; both are usually drawn with four phases. C. P. Blacker described a five-stage version in 1947, adding a final stage of declining population. Full citations are in the sources below.
Which model is more useful now
The four-stage model is a clean summary of the overall arc. The five-stage model is more useful when the question is about decline, because the final step is no longer hypothetical: 41 countries already record more deaths than births each year. For the full sequence, see the five stages of the demographic transition.
Frequently asked questions
Who created the demographic transition model?
It was built up over decades. Warren Thompson grouped countries by their birth and death trends in 1929, Frank Notestein set out the theory of the transition in 1945, and C. P. Blacker described a five-stage sequence in 1947.
When was Stage 5 added?
Blacker’s 1947 scheme already included a fifth, declining stage. Four-stage treatments of the model simply leave that stage off.
Does the demographic transition model have 4 or 5 stages?
Both versions are in use. The four-stage model stops at low births and deaths (Stage 4); the five-stage model adds a declining Stage 5, where deaths outnumber births. By 2026, 41 countries are in that declining stage.
How many countries would a four-stage model put in its final stage?
Under the five-stage rule, 63 countries are in Stage 4 and 41 are in Stage 5 in 2026. A four-stage model groups all 104 of them together as one final low-birth, low-death stage, about 72.1% of the world's people.
Which countries are in the fifth stage?
The 41 Stage 5 countries are those where deaths already outnumber births, for example Japan with 6.1 births and 12.8 deaths per 1,000, Germany with 8.2 and 12.5, and China with 6.1 and 8.1.
Sources
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024), World Population Prospects 2024, https://population.un.org/wpp/.
- Thompson, W. S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology 34(6): 959–975. https://doi.org/10.1086/214874.
- Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population—The Long View. In T. W. Schultz (ed.), Food for the World, pp. 36–57. University of Chicago Press.
- Blacker, C. P. (1947). Stages in Population Growth. The Eugenics Review 39(3): 88–101. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2986440/.